Friday, March 20, 2020

Social Distancing Day 5

Days 4 and 5 of essentially "shelter in place" are the result of a spring storm dumping 7 inches of slow in my backyard.  The weather has made a difficult situation gloomy.  Fortunately and unfortunately news outlets are keeping people from feeling isolated, but also ramping up fears as counties and states mandate "shelter in place" for non-essential workers.

Essential Critical Infrastructure Workers: Communications. Dams. Chemical. Commercial Facilities. Critical Manufacturing. Dams. Defense Industrial Base. Emergency Services. Energy. Financial. Food & Agriculture. Government Facilities. Healthcare & Public Health. Information Technology. Transportations systems. Water. Nuclear Reactors, Materials, & Waste. Department of Homeland Security logo. CISA Cyber + Infrastructure.

These measures should certainly slow the pace of new infections.  

The question in my mind is how the health threat evolves as restrictions are loosened.  Will a second wave be seen? Will mutations make the virus more/less infectious, more/less deadly? Should we be prepared for long term social distancing until a vaccine and/or treatment is available.

The economic impact will be significant.  Small and medium sized businesses will fold unless they can negotiate better lease terms and stabilize supply chains in the immediate term.  The federal government is pulling out all of the stops in what is a losing battle in the short term and will be very difficult to kick start without dry powder once the dust settles.

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