Wednesday, November 06, 2024

2024 Election

I have put together a brief commentary on the United States elections going back to 2012 with Obama's defeat of Mitt Romney.  Since I have been eligible to vote, I voted for Bill Clinton in 1992, sat out the 1996 and 2000 elections and voted for George Bush in 2004.  Since 2008, I have largely aligned my vote with my wife's staunch Democratic position.

2012 Barack Obama 65M votes, Mitt Romney 61M votes
2016 Hilary Clinton 66M votes, Donald Trump 63M votes
2020 Joe Biden 81M votes, Donald Trump 74M votes
2024 (as of Wednesday) Kamala Harris 66M votes, Donald Trump 72M votes

President Elect Donald J. Trump beat Kamala Harris by sweeping the battle ground states.  He will have a Republican controlled Senate and House.  He has appointed (3) Supreme Court Justices and will potential seat (2) more between now and 2028.

In terms of the popular vote, it certainly appears that Republicans are more energized and are voting.  Democratic voter turnouts have languished and seem to have fallen back to pre-Biden levels.

This was all done despite, the Democratic party raising nearly $1B vs the Republican's paltry $0.4B.  PACs spent $670M supporting Harris vs $190M supporting Trump.

He campaigned on a agenda of fixing immigration, new tariffs, reducing government regulation, improved health care and changing the education system.  While I have strong opinions on these issues, they will not affect my everyday life.  Yes, I will have a tougher time at airports and I will pay a little bit more for cheap foreign goods that will be more expensive.  I am fortunate that my kids will be done with public school soon.  Hopefully I can take care of my health and minimize my dependence on the health care system.  If Trump's policies work, I should have more money in my pocket to spend on things not provided by the government.

With Roe v Wade already overturned, I do not see the judicial docket doing much except to continue to make pro-business decisions and reinforce conservative values.  However, I will likely be surprised.  Reading through a list of past landmark Supreme Court decisions, many individuals may find standing in a sympathetic court.

For all I know this Trump victory, may have headed off a Civil War.  A repeat of January 6 on a nationwide scale would have been hard to stomach.  A roll back of protections for women, minorities and LGBTQ+ individuals may shape their politics for decades.  Trimming the fat on a bloated government may streamline processes and force the question of what environmental protections are necessary and what environmental protections are overreaching.  It is certainly harder to govern than it is to be elected.  Joe Biden learned that and for that matter so did Donald Trump during his first term.  This will give the Democrats a chance to question every decision that the Republican administration makes.

In terms of foreign policy, an isolationist policy will certainly have an impact on geopolitics.  I feel bad for the Palestinians and the Ukrainians.  I also felt bad for Tibet and the Sudanese, but the United States has been retreating from world politics since Vietnam.  If not for the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center, it is unlikely that the United States would have gotten involved in Iran, Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan.

The financial markets are certainly enjoying the election of Donald J. Trump with the S&P up 2.12% and the Dow up 3.24% in midday trading.  Those invested in US Markets must know something.  

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